Will Half of Coffee’s Growing Land Disappear by 2050? What the Latest Research Says

Trace the “half of suitable land” prediction back to its source, and what emerges is not a doomsday countdown, but a geographic shift that is already under way.

2050 coffee takes its name from a phrase widely used in Japan: kōhī no 2050-nen mondai, literally “coffee’s 2050 problem.” But when we revisited the evidence behind that phrase, we found an origin story—and a set of facts—more nuanced than we had understood.

“By 2050, half of the land suitable for growing coffee could be lost.” In Japan, that prediction has become shorthand for the future risks facing coffee.

Nearly a decade has passed since the figure entered mainstream discussion. Was the forecast wrong? Has the outlook become worse? And what, exactly, is expected to be cut in half?

The short answer is this: the risk has not gone away. But the research does not simply say that global coffee production will be halved in 2050—or that coffee will suddenly disappear.

The “50% loss” warning did not begin with WCR alone

One of the key sources is “A Bitter Cup,” published online in 2014 and in print in 2015. Looking at both Arabica and Robusta under multiple emissions scenarios, the study estimated that the world’s potential climate-suitable area for coffee could decline by roughly 50% by the 2050s.

In 2015, a separate study involving World Coffee Research (WCR) also projected that the area suitable for Arabica could be reduced by about half by the 2050s. WCR helped bring those findings to the industry through its research summary, giving the “half of suitable land” finding much wider visibility.

A 50% loss of suitable land is not the same as a 50% loss of coffee production. The models estimate changes in land that meets the climatic conditions for coffee cultivation.

Irrigation, shade, soil management and new varieties can allow production to continue in places where the climate becomes less favourable. Conversely, a climatically suitable area may not be available for farming because of forests, protected land, steep slopes, roads, land tenure or labour constraints.

The “50%” figure is therefore not a precise prediction of future output. It is a warning about how dramatically the geography of coffee could change if today’s varieties and production systems remain largely the same.

The map below shows that shift region by region. Under an intermediate emissions scenario (RCP 4.5), it compares 2000 with 2050 and shows how many suitability classes each area is projected to gain or lose. It does not show changes in production volume.

• 0: no change in suitability class
• +1 to +3 (green): an improvement of one to three classes
• −1 to −3 (orange to red): a decline of one to three classes

The four classes are highly suitable (S1), moderately suitable (S2), marginally suitable (S3) and unsuitable (N), so the possible change runs from −3 to +3. A value of −2 could mean a shift from S1 to S3; −3 could mean a shift from S1 to unsuitable.

Many established producing regions appear in pale orange, indicating a one-class decline. Darker orange and red indicate larger declines of two or three classes. Green areas may become more suitable, but that does not mean a farm can simply relocate there: forests, land use, infrastructure and local communities still matter.

A: Central and South America; B: West and Central Africa; C: South and Southeast Asia. Source: Grüter et al. (2022), PLOS ONE, Fig. 5. CC BY 4.0.

How Japan came to call it the “coffee 2050 problem”

“Coffee 2050 problem” is not a standard academic term in English. International studies and organisations tend to use phrases such as “climate change and coffee” or “land suitable for coffee by 2050.”

The year 2050 itself, however, is not a Japanese invention. Climate and agricultural-suitability studies around the world repeatedly use the mid-century period as a benchmark for comparing future scenarios.

In Japan, business media—including Nikkei—and related books helped introduce the issue to a broader audience. Pairing “2050” with “half” turned a complex body of research into a memorable and easy-to-understand message.

That clarity came with a cost. The label can easily be interpreted as “coffee production will be cut in half in 2050” or “coffee will become unavailable after that year.” What is distinctly Japanese is not the underlying risk, but the way multiple research findings were condensed into one phrase: the coffee 2050 problem.

The 2022 update: highly suitable land could fall by more than 50%

A 2022 PLOS ONE study combined 14 climate models with soil, slope and protected-area data to assess Arabica suitability in 2050. It projected that highly suitable land would decline by more than 50% under every emissions scenario studied. Moderately suitable land was projected to fall by 31–41%.

Another 2022 study in Nature Food found that Arabica yields may decline rapidly once vapour pressure deficit—a measure of atmospheric dryness—passes a critical threshold. The risk is not simply higher average temperatures, but the combined effect of heat and dry air.

From 2014 to 2022, the warning did not weaken

The “roughly 50%” estimate from 2014/15 referred to potential climate-suitable land for Arabica and Robusta combined. The “more than 50%” result from 2022 referred specifically to land classed as highly suitable for Arabica.

The studies are not measuring exactly the same thing, but they point in the same direction: if varieties and farming systems remain largely unchanged, the amount of land offering favourable conditions for coffee will shrink substantially by 2050.

The latest 2026 research: 20% of today’s harvested area could become unsuitable

In 2026, RaboResearch published an analysis focused on land where Arabica is currently harvested. It estimated that 8% of that area is already climatically unsuitable, potentially rising to 20% by 2050.

At first glance, a shift from “50%” to “20%” may sound like an improvement. But the early studies examined the world’s potential suitable land, while the newer estimate focuses on land currently under harvest. And before a place becomes fully unsuitable, it can still deteriorate from highly suitable to marginal.

Different countries, different outlooks

• Brazil: 81% suitable today → 62% in 2050
• Colombia: 56% → 45%
• Honduras: 53% → 12%
• Ethiopia: 39% → 50%

Source: RaboResearch, 2026

The question is not simply whether coffee will disappear

In countries such as Ethiopia, suitable conditions may expand at higher elevations. But a new green area on a map cannot automatically become a coffee farm. It may contain forest, protected land, other crops, homes and communities—and may lack roads, processing facilities or secure land access.

Coffee is not interchangeable across landscapes. Place, elevation, temperature and rainfall shape the flavours associated with an origin. If cultivation moves, the sensory identity we connect with that origin may change as well.

1. Which origins can remain where they are, and which will be forced to move?
2. Which varieties and flavour profiles will endure—and what might be lost?
3. Who will carry the cost of adaptation?

Adaptation has already begun at origin

Responses are already under way. Through WCR’s Innovea Global Coffee Breeding Network, participating countries are developing varieties that can better withstand heat, drought and disease while maintaining quality and yield.

Farms are testing agroforestry and shade trees to moderate heat, practices that improve soil water retention, irrigation, and the replacement of vulnerable plants with more resilient varieties. No single approach works everywhere.

Producers are not responding to a distant date. They are making decisions about the next harvest and the next trees they plant. AI-generated editorial image for 2050 coffee.

Making better coffee the next normal

2050 is not a deadline after which coffee suddenly disappears. It is a time horizon: the outcome will reflect what varieties are planted today, which origin relationships are maintained, and how much the industry invests in research and adaptation.

As Global Coffee Report argues, the decisive period is not 2050 itself, but the years leading up to it.

At 2050 coffee, our aim is to make sustainable, traceable coffee that returns value fairly to producers the next normal.

• Build lasting origin relationships: work with producers committed to sustainable farming and support the continuity of quality coffee production.
• Share the story behind each cup: communicate the origin, variety, processing method and producer story—not only the price or tasting notes.
• Make better coffee easier to access: use tap coffee and automated espresso systems to deliver consistent quality in a format that feels approachable, including for people new to specialty coffee.

The time created by technology should be used to talk with customers and share where coffee comes from. Efficiency is not the goal in itself; it is a way to bring producers and coffee drinkers closer together.

A future in which we can enjoy coffee beyond 2050 will not be built in 2050. It is shaped by a decision at origin, a story shared in a café and the cup a customer chooses today.

Build the future of coffee, together.

Sources & Further Reading

• Bunn et al., “A Bitter Cup: Climate Change Profile of Global Production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee”
• Bunn et al., PLOS ONE (2015) / WCR Research Summary
• Grüter et al., PLOS ONE (2022)
• Kath et al., Nature Food (2022)
• RaboResearch (2026)
• Global Coffee Report, “Why the Next Decade Is Decisive for Coffee’s Future”
• World Coffee Research — Innovea Global Coffee Breeding Network

Image credits: PLOS ONE figure reproduced under CC BY 4.0. The generated editorial image does not depict a specific farm or producer.